Experience is overrated

Relying on experience can be limiting… experience doesn’t necessarily hold lasting value, since value shifts with the marketplace. What worked well at one time doesn’t mean it’s best to repeat that approach.Experience: At 91, the man Warren Buffett famously dubbed a “superinvestor” is still picking unloved stocks [Forbes, February 11, 2008, pg 48]An interesting fellow, Walter Schloss, he doesn’t use a computer and he doesn’t pay for research reports or charts. The article stated, “He often found himself buying while stocks had a long way to fall and selling too early.” This was in reference to his experience during the 80s and 90s.“Still, many of his calls were spot-on. He shorted Yahoo and Amazon before the markets tanked in 2000, and cleaned up.” After that, unable to find many cheap stocks he liquidated his fund and gave investors their money back.The article listed five stocks that Schloss bought.The article states: It’s been two years since he bought in, and the stock is down a third. But the superinvestor, who has seen countless such drops, is philosophical and confident this one is worth book at least. “How much can you lose?” he asks.The answer: A lot, a little over a year later these stocks have fallen to penny stock prices. Four of them have risen at least 100% from the low in March, the other stock nearly rose a 100% from the low and each stock is still significantly below February 2008 prices.These companies were weak prior to 2008. Why is he picking losers? The man has experience in it and experience is a hard thing to give up. During a protracted economic downturn the share prices of these companies have gotten much cheaper… naturally.

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