Hedgehogging

A great book filled with real insight about people that run money for a living, and marketplace dynamics, with a focus on international equity expansion. Regarding the Internet bubble, people were willing to believe that the Internet was the most important modern invention, above air travel, the phone, and computer processing power… even air-conditioning has a direct impact on the living and working lives of hundreds of millions of people. Hong Kong, New York, and other cities wouldn’t have the same kind of growth without the merits of air-conditioning. Tech failed because it was never authentically strong to begin with; it offered all the promises of “newness” and change without long-term substance. In my own analysis, what people missed was that the Internet is simply a delivery mechanism. A pipeline is not necessarily valuable; it’s what is transferred within the pipe that contains value. 

But getting back to the insight from the book: It took 15 years for stocks to regain their 1929 highs, and 21 years to outperform bonds. The Dow Jones Average was at the same level in 1982 as it had been in 1965 and had lost more than half its purchasing power. Returns depend a lot on when you invest. As for volatility, to suggest that stocks are no more volatile than bonds in the long run is simply not true. 

What I like about this is that it is a reminder that you cannot rely on a broad market index to produce great wealth for you. It comes down to finding a superior investment in a crowd of average offerings. Even stocks for the long run aren’t a great investment.

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